Illegal Immigration

Misconceptions on who is most caught up in this debate:

Poll: Californians support citizenship for long-term illegal immigrants (4 out of 5!) From article: "It crosses party lines. This is not a divisive issue."

Graham Says Republicans Risk `Political Suicide' on Immigration From article: ``This is the defining moment for the Republican Party,'' Graham, of South Carolina, said on the ``Fox News Sunday'' program. With Hispanics the fastest-growing group in the U.S., Republicans ``will lose our majority'' if Congress passes harsh penalties for illegal immigrants and fails to create a way of addressing the estimated 11 million undocumented workers already in the U.S.,"-Lindsey Graham.

Exit Polls demonstrate significance (or insignificance) of the hard-line stance against illegal immigration: From Article: Mitt Romney was dominating the GOP's most conservative voters and people wanting a strong stance against illegal immigrants. FYI: States Romney won: Massachusetts, Alaska, Minnesota, Colorado and Utah on Super Tuesday. In the early voting contests, he won Nevada, Maine, Michigan and Wyoming. Note, not a border state (Mexican border) in the mix. States are predominantly white and/or rurally disadvantaged. Seems to suggest the further you get from the actual problem at the Mexican border.... support for more radical solutions to immigration increases. (Alaska, Maine, Wyoming, Minnesota...... I know I'm repeating.... it's just really funny that the people who are distanced from large Hispanic populations are the ones who are the angriest about illegal immigration. Massachusetts is Romney's home state, Michigan is Romney's birth state, and Nevada, Utah, and Wyoming all have large Mormon populations). (I'll honestly be surprised if McCain chooses Romney as VP, there isn't much in it for McCain, especially since they don't get along. I suspect it will be someone slightly off of the current radar.)

Poll: GOP Voters Want Immigration Solutions This Year; Broad Approach to Reform Preferred Leaders Selling Public Short with Hard-Line Approach In a poll conducted in June of 2006 found that Republican voters are more likely to support candidates who support immigration reform that combines border and workplace enforcement with a multi-step path to legalization for undocumented immigrants who learn English, pay fines, and taxes. Have sentiments changed since this poll was conducted? Perhaps, I wonder how much the AM radio political entertainment has influenced the GOP sentiment.

National Immigration Forum: The #s from polls show a conflicted, confused, and often contradictory public opinion.

• About 8-in-10 (79%) favor allowing illegal immigrants to register as "guest-workers."
• About 8-in-10 (78%) favor allowing illegal immigrants in the U.S. citizenship if they learn English, have a job and pay taxes.
• About 8-in-10 (82%) say the U.S. is not doing enough to keep "illegals," from entering the country.
• About 7-in-10 (71%) favor providing and enforcing penalties for employers convicted of hiring illegal immigrants.
• A majority (62%) favor stopping illegal immigrants from entering the U.S. "by whatever steps necessary."
• A minority (47%) support deporting all illegal immigrants.

Effects of Illegal Immigration on the Economy:

The following is a good paper that adequately addresses the pros and cons of illegal immigration. It is heavy on statistics to back up any statements made: http://www.cfr.org/content/publications/attachments/ImmigrationCSR26.pdf

The Real Problem with Immigration... and the Real Solution:
From Article: Typical illegal aliens come to America primarily for better jobs and in the process add value to the U.S. economy. However, they also take away value by weakening the legal and national security envi­ronment. When three out of every 100 people in America are undocumented (or, rather, docu­mented with forged and faked papers), there is a profound security problem. Even though they pose no direct security threat, the presence of millions of undocumented migrants distorts the law, distracts resources, and effectively creates a cover for terror­ists and criminals. In other words, the real problem presented by illegal immigration is security, not the supposed threat to the economy. Indeed, efforts to curtail the economic influx of migrants actually worsen the security dilemma by driving many migrant workers underground, thereby encouraging the culture of illegality. A non-citizen guest worker program is an essential component of securing the border, but only if it is the right program. (Found on The Heritage Foundation- Conservative Think Tank)

Cost of Illegal Immigration May Be Less Than Meets the Eye This article makes the case that the drop in wages of unskilled workers may not be due primarily to illegal immigrations as critics have stated.

Costs of Performing Deportation:

Estimate for Deporting Illegal Immigrants: $94 Billion Julie Myers, Chief of Immigrations and Customs enforcement: She emphasized that it was a “very rough” estimate, not taking into account the likely deterrent effects of a nationwide hunt for every illegal immigrant. Many may choose to return home on their own and avoid the average month-long stay in a holding cell.

$41 Billion Cost Projected To Remove Illegal Entrants Liberal think tank claims that it would cost $206 billion to $230 billion over five years, depending on how many of the immigrants leave voluntarily.

The price of deporting immigrants: Looking beyond financial costs (or anticipated financial costs). "First, forget the 1968 riots in Los Angeles, or the 1980 violence in Miami's Liberty City. You would be creating an underclass of alienated aliens like the Muslim youths that carried out the “French Intifada” in the suburbs of Paris in 2005 – only much worse. You would have 12 million second-class citizens – mostly Hispanics – who would not only be disenfranchised from mainstream society, but who would be legally barred from aspiring to join it. That would be a recipe for frustration, anger and rebellion."

Border Policy's Success Strains Resources Proper facilities to detain illegal immigrants upon an increased crack down do not exist. (Not to mention transit infrastructure).

Enough about the Immigration issue, In closing I wanted to return the focus to McCain who will likely be the nominee unless Huckabee some how manages to win the remaining states and gets Romney's delegates. (chances very low). Tim speculated in today's comments that Romney will be McCain's running mate. The reasoning is to secure his conservative base. The trouble with this logic is that you are assuming the conservative base is representative of a minority of the population, which has favors hard line immigration reform and the heavy influence of fundamentalist Christians. While this group may carry some weight in the GOP, they do not reflect the values of the American public.

To attest to this: High Enthusiasm Propels Democrats
The article claims that in nearly all of the primaries a significantly larger turn out appeared for the Democratic primary than the Republican. In some instances the numbers were almost twice as large as those associated with the Republican primary. Additionally, many states have an open primary which allows Independents to declare a party the day of the election (which is what I did). Independents played a large role in McCain winning the nomination. That being said the masses came out to support liberal and moderate views in large numbers.

I believe the large voter turnout has been due in part to two Democrat candidates who have gone the extra mile to get out the vote. Additionally people are more disenfranchised with their government than perhaps at any other time in my life. Citizens usually shrouded in their apathy and indifference are deciding to show up... and they are either independent, or they are liberal.

McCain probably would not have won the primary if the conservatives hadn't split their vote. Now that they have and McCain has become the unofficial GOP candidate he no longer needs the conservative base. Instead to win, McCain must appeal to independent minded voters, which happens to be what he's good at.

Rasmussen Reports: Election 2008: McCain vs. Clinton and Obama

"McCain does better than either Democrat with unaffiliated voters in the new survey, but especially when Clinton is his opponent. Against the former First Lady, he leads 52% to 31% with unaffiliateds."

I am the coveted voter... not the base.